Hickory, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

755
FXUS62 KGSP 260718
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
318 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another hot and humid day today, thanks to a large upper ridge
over the area. The ridge gradually weakens, allowing temperatures
to get closer to normal by the weekend. A disturbance meandering
over the Deep South will yield scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day, especially during the afternoon and evening
hours. A weak cold front reaches our region by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot and Humid Again but not as Hot or Humid as the Last Two Days

2) Heat Advisory in Effect from 2PM to 8PM Along the I-77 Corridor

3) Another Round of Strong to Severe Storms Develops this Afternoon
and Evening but Coverage and Intensity Should be Less than Yesterday

Dry conditions have returned across the forecast area this morning
with ongoing convection currently well to our southwest over
Georgia. Dry conditions will linger through the morning hours. Still
have some some broken to scattered upper clouds tracking across the
western SC Upstate, NE GA, and northern NC this morning. Activity
should gradually scatter out around daybreak. Some patchy fog and
low stratus have already developed across the mountain valleys this
morning and should gradually expand through daybreak before lifting
shortly after sunrise. Lows this morning will end up ~4-8 degrees
above normal.

Weak upper ridging remains over the eastern United States while a
weak upper low lifts northward over Florida through the period. This
will allow the heat and humidity to lower just a bit today (we will
take any relief we can get at this point). Temps this afternoon will
end up ~3-4 degrees cooler compared to yesterday but will still end
up around 5-10 degrees above normal. Highs will range from the low
to mid 90s east of the mountains and the upper 80s to lower 90s
across the mountain valleys. Triple digit heat indices are once
again expected, mainly east of the NC mountains. However, the
Caldwell, Burke, McDowell, Rutherford and Polk mountain zones will
see triple digit heat indices return today. Locations along/near the
I-77 corridor are most likely to reach Heat Advisory criteria this
afternoon/early evening so the Heat Advisory remains in effect from
2pm to 8pm. Heat indices in the advisory will range from 105-108
degrees F. Another round of strong to severe storms can be expected
this afternoon and evening but activity is not expected to be a
robust as what we saw yesterday. Although deep layer shear will
increase slightly, ranging from 10-15 kts, both SBCAPE and DCAPE
will a few hundred J/kg lower than yesterday. SBCAPE should
generally range from 2,000-3,000 J/kg with DCAPE ranging from 900-
1,300 J/kg per the latest high res guidance and model soundings. The
Day 1 SPC Severe Weather Outlook has the entire forecast area in a
Marginal risk for severe storms and this appears warranted based on
the expected environment today. Damaging wind gusts from microbursts
will continue to be the main hazard with any severe storms that
develop but isolated, brief large hail is also possible. The Day 1
WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook has most of the forecast area in a
Marginal risk so the isolated heavy rainfall/flooding threat will
return again today (especially for areas that saw heavy rainfall
yesterday and that get heavy rainfall again today).

Drier conditions will gradually develop late this evening into
tonight once convection wanes. Lows tonight will be similar to this
morning, ending up around 5-8 degrees above normal. Patchy mountain
valley fog and low stratus should develop again tonight into
daybreak Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday: The pattern will remain unsettled with
showers and storms expected again Friday and Saturday. Coverage
should be enhanced with an upper diffluent pattern in between a
weak upper low near FL and a flat trough over the Great Lakes. The
typical mountaintop and lee trough convergence will be the triggers
for convective initiation, and shear and thermal profiles will
support a pulse storm mode. The NBM has categorical PoPs in the
mountains tapering to likely in the Foothills and high-end chc
southeast of I-85. This seems a little high, but over a 12-hour
period, coverage may largely verify these values. A few strong
wet microbursts can be expected both days from mid aftn to early
evening. Also, weak steering flow and elevated PWATs will yield an
isolated/localized heavy rain/flood threat. Temps will continue
to be slightly above normal, with highs in the upper 80s in the
lowest mountain valleys and lower 90s east of the mountains. Lows
in the 60s in the mountains and generally 68-74 east. Dewpts do
not mix out much either day, keeping heat indices elevated and
possibly topping out in the 100-105 deg F range in the southern
Upper Savannah Valley and the Charlotte area. But not expecting
to need a Heat Advisory either day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday: A weak upper low will open up into a
relative weakness in the subtropical ridge over FL/GA Sunday,
while a northern stream trough digs into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. This set up should keep enhanced diurnal convection
going thru the first half of next week. In fact, the deterministic
guidance shows even more convective response Sunday thru Tuesday
than what we`re expecting Friday and Saturday. The digging trough
will bring a weak cold front SE toward the forecast area and may
provide extra convergence for convection Tuesday. Pretty much every
day has similar PoPs and temps, with a slight uptick in PoPs and a
slight downward trend in max temps Tuesday. The above-climo PoPs may
increase excessive rain/flash flood threats as we continue with this
pattern. Sever threat should remain a few wet microbursts each day,
with perhaps an increase in more organized storms Tuesday thanks
to a little more shear and upper divergence associated with the
digging upper trough.

There is disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF on whether the cold
front will push far enough thru the forecast area to dry us out
and bring temps back to normal. The GFS hangs the front up across
the Piedmont, while the EC pushes it to the I-20 corridor. It`s
difficult for a front to clear thru the area this time of year,
and the EC seems to be on the more amplified side of the LREF
guidance on the 500 mb trough. So while PoPs are lower, they are
still elevated for Wednesday (50-70%).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Calmer and drier conditions have returned
across the terminals this morning and only isolated showers and
thunderstorms are floating around the western Carolinas. None of
these are expected to impact the terminals. VFR has returned and
should continue through the late morning or early afternoon hours.
Mountain valley fog and low stratus may develop again through
daybreak but confidence on whether this will reach KAVL remains too
low to mention in the TAF at this time. Winds will remain calm to
light and VRB through the 06Z TAF period. Daytime VFR cumulus will
develop again this afternoon and evening. Another round of scattered
to numerous thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon into
late this evening across the terminals. Went with TEMPOs for TSRA
and associated restrictions from ~20Z-24Z (18-23Z at KHKY and KAVL)
followed by PROB30s for TSRA towards the end of the period. VFR will
gradually return late this evening into tonight once TSRA subsides.

Outlook: Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms continue into next week. Fog and/or low stratus will
be possible each morning in the usual mountain valleys as well as
near lakes and rivers.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for NCZ036-037-057-071-072-082.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...AR